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Bear Market Picks, Part I

Bear Market Picks Part II

 

Part III of VFC's Bear Market Picks

 

MVL, Marvel Entertainment:

No longer is the Marvel name synonymous only to comic books. The company that Stan Lee launched has re-branded itself into a movie production powerhouse. The surprising success of Iron Man proved that Marvel can turn one of it's B level heroes into an A+ performance at the box office. The second installment of the Hulk franchise was no slouch either.

 

Unlike the Spider-Man franchise, Marvel banks the money from the Iron Man and Incredible Hulk movies, not Sony or another production company.

 

MVL is a stock that I took a chance on when it traded in the mid teens a few years ago, and I followed it up to the high twenties where I sold it for approximately 26 bucks, only to watch it hit the mid thirties recently. I never argue with a nice profit, and I had one from MVL, but I did miss out on higher gains. At the time, I was not convinced that Marvel would be able to take their B level heroes and turn them into success at the theater. Marvel had a lot invested in the success of it's movie franchise, and failures from either Iron Man or The Incredible Hulk would have put a serious hurting on the company and the stock price would have reflected that failure. The fact is, Iron Man was a huge success and The Incredible Hulk also performed impressively, although the lingering memories of the terrible first Hulk movie probably kept people away from the second.

 

What we have now, is a stock trading in the high twenties, a level at which I am comfortable buying.

 

I am actually quite surprised that MVL is trading as high as it is, I was expecting more of a drop, to about 25 dollars, with the way the market has tanked lately, but it looks like there is a lot of investor confidence in MVL, even with the slumping economy.

 

Any price below thirty is a great place buy, in my opinion, as Marvel has many movies in various stages of production and pre production to go along with the comic book sales and merchandising licences. Any shares I buy now I plan on holding for at least five years, at which time I'll re-evaluate my holdings. Comic Book movies are big draws, and Marvel has thousands of characters in their treasure chest to throw onto the big screen.

 

VFC would push to have Punisher 2 filmed in NYC.

 

Marvel has also jumped into the theme-park arena. Construction of the first Marvel theme park is underway in Dubai, one of the world's biggest paradise destinations.

 

MVL has been somewhat effected by the bad market, but not as much as the market as a whole. I'll be buying below thirty and hoping for a drop into the mid twenties, but if we haven't seen that level yet, we may not see that level at all, barring a prolonged economic slump.

 

Risk:

- A prolonged economic slump hurts comic book and merchandise sales and delays production of new feature films.

- Marvel is unable to replicate it's Iron Man success with any other B list heroes.

 

Reward:

- Marvel continues to draw on it's long list of characters to produce successful movies well into the future.

- MVL stock rebounds along with the market.

- Marvel increases it's world wide exposure with it's Dubai theme park.

- Merchandise and licensing sales continue to increase as the studio releases new movies.

 

Timeframe:

Personally, I'm holding this one for five or ten years. If they can make a world wide success out of Iron Man, I want to see what they can do with the likes of Captain America, Thor, The Avengers and whoever else they pull out of the hat.

This stock trades up or down a few bucks at a time quite often, so there's ample time to sell on any spikes, but I stress the long-term aspect of MVL.

 

CPST, Capstone Turbine:

Capstone Turbine Corporation is the world's leading producer of low-emission microturbine systems, and was the first to market commercially viable microturbine energy products.

 

CPST, in the course of the time that I've invested in it, has come complete circle (back to the one dollar per share range), but the company itself has only become stronger, and a year closer to turning a profit. About a year ago, when I was looking for a somewhat undiscovered alternative energy stock, I found CPST when it traded below a dollar and quickly jumped aboard.

 

Although Capstone still has never turned a profit, the stock rose with the gas prices, and the market as a whole, to a high of the mid-four dollar range. Capstone's low-emission Micro Turbines are catching on quickly around the globe, recently announcing deals in Chile and Vietnam. The company can barely keep up with the growing demand.

 

Tanking with market, CPST is back down into bargain territory. It's still a very speculative stock, as are all stocks of companies that have yet to turn a profit. Big money has pulled hundreds of billions of dollars out of the market, and speculative money is usually the first to go, hence the big drop in CPST. Another factor that may have contributed to the decline is the falling energy prices. With gas and oil prices going through the roof, business was flocking to alternatives such as Capstone's Micro Turbines, but the rush for alternatives may diminish with the falling energy prices. Even if that is the case, Capstone will be busy for awhile taking care of the order backlog.

 

It's my opinion that Capstone will rebound with the market when big money, including speculative money, starts pouring back in. In a couple of years, the company should start realizing profits, and those of us that are in on the bottom floor should be greatly rewarded. Now is the time to be BUYing!

 

Risk:

- Demand for Capstone's Microturbines decreases and the company fails to ever turn a profit.

- Other alternatives to low-emission Microturbines take hold of the market eating into Capstone's market share.

- Prolonged slumping market conditions keep CPST at a depressed price.

 

Reward:

- Those of us in now are in on the bottom floor and will reap nice rewards a few years down the line as the orders keep coming in and the company reports profits for years to come.

- CPST rebounds with the market as speculative money comes back in.

 

Timeframe:

Mid to long term hold. In VFC's opinion, we're in on the bottom floor, and I'll hold until it doesn't make sense to hold any more. Expect some volatility while this is still a speculative stock, and take advantage of any impressive spikes or dips to sell into or buy, respectively.

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CVM, CEL-SCI Corporation:

Cel-Sci (CVM) is another speculative play, but it's one that is 50% less risky right now because the market has ripped the price of the stock in half to around thirty cents.

 

Cel-Sci is currently preparing to initiate Phase III trials for it's lead drug candidate, Multikine, which treats cancer of the head and neck. In Phase II trials, Multikine was proven to be safe, tolerable and improved patients overall survival by an average of 3.5 years, according to released reports. The February 2008 edition of MedAdNews listed Multikine as one of ten future billion dollar blockbuster drugs.

 

Investing in CVM is strictly investing in the success or failure of Multikine, but at 30-plus cents per share, the reward far outweighs the risk.

 

The company just took control of it's Baltimore area manufacturing facility which brings the Phase III trials taht much closer. Upon success of the Phase III trials, the same facility could be ready to manufacture commercial amounts of Multikine within a year, according the Cel-Sci CEO.

 

I've been accumulating shares of CVM for about eight months now, and I've picked up my accumulating pace since the stock has dropped down into the thirty cent range. Investing is all about risk-reward, and the risk-reward is great considering the price of CVM and the potential of Multikine.

 

Risk:

- Multikine fails Phase III trials.

- Multikine gets approved but fails to catch on as a preferred treatment.

 

Reward:

- Multikine reaches trial endpoints, receives approval and rewards investors handsomely.

- Good news on the way gives investors a chance to trade in and out to reduce risk.

 

Timeframe:

All about the Multikine trials. In the short term, sell into any large spikes and buy back on any dips.

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With the market crashing as it has over the last couple of weeks, there are some real stock bargains out there for those who want to take advantage of this excellent bargain-shopping market.

 

On Friday I posted Part One of VFC's Bear Market Stock Picks.

 

It's possible that we may be at the bottom of the bear market, or close to it, indicated by the huge price swings (especially the last thirty minutes) of Friday's trading session. Billions of dollars are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportune time to jump back into the market, and the swift rise to nearly 300 points on the plus side about 25 minutes before the market close on Friday gave us a good indication of what can happen when that money comes pouring back into the market.

 

VFC's intention is to already be vested in the appropriate stocks when the market recovers and the upswing begins.

 

Chasing stock runs is not any fun, and usually ends up costing you money, but being along for the ride on a nice run makes a whole investing career worth it. The key is to do your homework and find the runs before they happen, then buy and sell with a plan. In my opinion, it's easier to bargain shop in the stock market when the market is down because many stocks are undervalued and oversold, giving the informed investor a chance to move in before a rebound. In up markets, many stocks are overvalued, overbought and trade at too high of a price to earnings ratio, leaving little wiggle room if a sudden correction hits. In a down market, many stocks are actually more secure investments because the downward risk is reduced because the stock price is already deflated.

 

In short, now is the time to BUY.

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M, Macy's:

In the first installment of VFC's Bear Market Picks, Nordstrom (JWN) was listed as a good high-end retailer that should rebound nicely when the economy turns around and the market rebounds. A good alternative to JWN is M, Macy's Inc.

 

Macy's stock, M, may seem more attractive an investment than JWN for the small investor because it's share price is half that of JWN, but the Market Cap of each company is nearly identical (4.17B for M, 3.96B for JWN). It may feel better for some investors knowing that you can have two shares of M for the price of one JWN, but I look at an investment in either one of these companies as virtually identical, and for that reason, I suggest only investing in one or the other for the sake of diversification.

 

Whether we are at a market bottom or not, I think shares of Macy's, as well as Nordstrom, still have room to drop due to the dismal holiday season that market analysts, and the companies themselves, predict. 3Q estimates have already been dropped, and guidance for 4Q and year-end have also been dropped. The slowing economy has people keeping their dollars in their pockets, and the high-end retailers will take the brunt of the economic slump as people look for cheaper alternatives to their luxury items.

 

Macy's is not going anywhere as a company, however, and when the market and economy begins to rebound, Macy's (M) will also rebound, rewarding patient investors.

 

Macy's has suspended it's share buyback program to leave it's large amount of cash on hand in tact (approx $700 million) and ease the impact of the slumping sales in this slumping economy. In the case of an extended economic slump, Macy's has bank line-of-credit in place with JP Morgan-Chase and Bank of America to the tune of $2.0 billion, but Macy's has not yet needed to touch that line.

 

M is a victim of the market conditions and the economic slump, but the Macy's name is strong, they have lots of cash on hand and will be primed for a turnaround when the market rebounds.

 

I've already chosen to throw money into JWN, but if I had chosen M, I'd be using the same strategy of investing as I am with JWN which is to start buying now and increasing the buys as the stock drops lower. While the expected dismal results should drop the stock price even lower, there is the chance that if the market is at bottom, M is also at bottom with declining sales and poor Q3 and Q4 performance already priced in. For that reason I say and purchase in the $10 range is a good buy.

 

Risk:

- A prolonged economic slump keeps Macy's from rebounding it's business anytime soon adding to more downward pressure on the stock price.

- Macy's is forced to tap into the Bank line of credit after burning through cash to sustain operations during the economic downturn, again adding to downward pressure on the stock.

 

Reward:

- M can at least double when the economy picks up steam and the market rebounds, especially if the company does not need to tap the credit line.

- As the economy rebounds and sales increase, Macy's can restart the share buyback program giving the stock price upward momentum.

 

Timeframe:

Buy anywhere in the ten dollar range, jump on this stock if it approached five dollars and hang in there until the market and economy rebounds.

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MSFT, Microsoft:

Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the world's strongest companies and is always a safe investment, in my opinion. Right now, with the share price slaughtered by the slumping market conditions, it's as safe a time as ever to invest in MSFT.

 

Not too long ago, MSFT was trading near the mid thirty dollar range, up almost ten bucks from a year earlier and in the midst of a share buyback. Once the market took a hit, so did shares of Microsoft and what we have is MSFT on sale for approximately twenty one dollars.

 

MSFT is trading at 11.5 times it's earnings (Price to Earnings), below average for the normal P/E of Microsoft.

 

Microsoft's record speaks for itself, and this stock is trading down solely as a result of the current market conditions and in no part is it due to business failures.

 

With Yahoo's share price down to a dismal 12 bucks, it's likely Microsoft will once again attempt to buyout that company at probably 10 dollars less than what they offered earlier this year. A combined Microsoft-Yahoo could put a dent in Google's dominance of the Internet advertising realm.

 

MSFT is a great investment at this price, and accumulation is the way to go. One of the safest bets out there to rebound with the market.

 

Risk:

- There is little risk with Microsoft, but there is always the possibility that competing companies will come out with products that eat away at Microsoft's market share.

- A prolonged economic slump can impact Microsoft's long-standing viability.

- Large institutional ownership keeps the price relatively level for an extended period of time.

 

Reward:

- Microsoft could rebound to above thirty in short time after the market rebounds.

- Strong cash position will allow Microsoft to whether the economic downturn.

- One of the world's strongest and most stable companies with a nice dividend.

 

Timeframe:

BUY now, accumulate and wait for the market turnaround. The poor market conditions that killed the Yahoo! stock (YHOO) may save Microsoft and it's investors billions if they re-attempt a takeover.

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YHOO, Yahoo!:

Yahoo! is a good bet for a rebound for a couple of reasons. The first reason being that the share price has been hammered along with the market and will be poised for a general rebound, and the other being that Microsoft may decide to swoop in and re-attempt to buy Yahoo!, as they did earlier this year when Microsoft offered $33 a share for Yahoo!. Yahoo!'s share price spiked up about ten dollars to near the price of the offer. Lately, it's been rumored Microsoft may offer 22 bucks a share this time, which would be good for another ten dollar price increase.

 

Yahoo! is still number two in the search engine business, and the Yahoo! name is still a huge player in Internet advertising. The YHOO stock will be primed for a rebound when the market rebounds and advertising revenue picks up again.

 

The chance of another Microsoft buyout offer is icing on the cake and the offer could come at any time.

 

Risk:

- Yahoo! fails to come up with a solid business plan and the stock continues to decline.

- Yahoo! fails to reach agreeable terms with Microsoft or any other potential suitors or partners.

- A prolonged economic slump hurts Internet advertising revenues.

 

Reward:

- Yahoo! rebounds to pre-crash levels when the market turns around.

- Improving economy opens up additional advertising revenue.

- Microsft swoops in with another offer to buy Yahoo!

- Yahoo! partners with a company other than Microsoft.

 

Timeframe:

Buy YHOO now and wait for one of the following scenarios.

- A general rebound with the market when the market rebounds.

- Microsoft makes another offer for the company giving us a large spike in share price and an opportune time to sell for a nice gain.

- A partnership with another company is announced.

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The stock market is still looking for it's new bottom and millions of people are selling their holdings out of fear of what's to come. Indications are, we may be close to a bottom with the violent price swings we say today, and it's time to look at some rock-bottom deals.

 

There's billions of dollars that are sitting on the sidelines in low-interest money market accounts or government securities that will re-enter the market when the time is right, and we saw a taste of that today when the market actually hit 300 points up during the last half hour of trading.

 

My plan is to be in BEFORE the market rebounds. Chasing a stock run is never as much fun as being along for the ride.

 

In VFC's opinion, it's actually easier to find good stock picks in a down market, because many stocks are oversold. In an up market, many stocks are overvalued and you've got to tread carefully because any hint of a stock market correction could immediately send stock prices back to earth.

 

Short sellers take control when they feel a stock is overpriced, and when the market drops, it's the short sellers that bought at the highs that make money. Once the market begins to rebound, the short sellers will 'cover' and go long, and that's when we could be in for some pretty good rides.

 

With the crash of '08 in full effect, I'm on the hunt for some bargains, which is not unusual; I'm always on the hunt for good 'Risk vs Reward' stocks. Here's a few that VFC is looking at going forward. Most you've already seen here at VFC's Stock House.

 

VFC likes the following two stocks because these companies have both received recent drug approvals but their stocks have followed the market down. I believe these two have the makings of a rebound.

 

EPCT, Epicept Corporation:

Epicept has just received a full marketing authorization from the European Commission to market Ceplene in Europe. Ceplene treats patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) in first remission and will be available to patients in 30 countries as soon as 1Q 2009. Ceplene is estimated to bring in approx $200 million per year and has been granted Orphan Drug states by the EMEA. The company President and CEO, Jack Talley, has indicated that there are ongoing talks for a European partner to market and distribute Ceplene. News on a partnership should come before year end.

Aside from Ceplene, Epicept has five additional drugs or treatments in their pipeline, most notably Azixa, a treatment for metastatic brain cancer which Epicept has partnered with Myriad.

 

Ceplene alone, now that it is approved, should have EPCT trading well above a dollar, or even closer to it's price target of $6.00 (according to Yahoo! Finance) but in this market investors are quick to take a profit (EPCT is a triple over the past few months), and short sellers are quick to take control.

 

When the Market rebounds, EPCT is a sure bet to rise.

Risks:

- All biotechs are risky.

- Ceplene may not reach sales goals.

- Other drugs in the pipeline may fail trials.

- Partnership deal may not turn out to be profitable for the company.

- If Ceplene fails to reach expectations, the company may go bust before the completion of addtional trials.

 

Reward:

- Ceplene is approved to be marketed and sold in 30 countries and will possibly bring in up to $200 million per year and Epicept's 50 million dollar Market Cap does not reflect the potential of the company. EPCT is undervalued.

- Company just received a $50 million stock/debt shelf which should be enough to cover expenses until Ceplene starts bringing in money, alleviating fear of the company going bust.

- Updates on Azixa trials have brought the EPCT stock to over four dollars in the past. Now, with an approved drug (Ceplene), EPCT could rised even higher than that on an Azixa update.

- Positive updates from the other four drugs in trials could add to any upward momentum.

 

Timeframe for Payback: When the market rebounds, EPCT should immediately begin to reflect the good news that the company has recently reported.

I also have EPCT as a long term pick, and will hold shares through the conclusion of Azixa trials, if not longer. I've traded in and out of EPCT in the past, and I'll sell into any large spikes and I'll buy into any dips.

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AGEN, Antigenics Inc:

 

Antigenics, AGEN, has received approval to market and distribute Oncophage, an immunotherapy treatment to treat patients with cancer of the kidney, in Russia. The only large hurdle that would impede Antigenics quick launch of Oncophage was that the US FDA had to approve the exportation of Oncophage to Russia after being produced in the USA. The FDA has approved that export and, in VFC's opinion, due to the market conditions and probable short sellers who reacted to the news, the AGEN stock has declined nearly two-thirds of it's post-news value, to approx 60 cents.

 

Antigenics also intends to file a Marketing Authorization Application to the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) by the end of this year.

 

I believe AGEN has been manipulated (traded too high in the up-market after DNDN news last year, setting up an opportune time for shorts to get in) and this stock should recover to reflect the positive Oncophage approval when the market rebounds.

 

Risk:

- Oncophage does not take off in Russia and fails to pull in serious revenue.

- Antigenics fails to gain approval for Oncophage anywhere else in the world.

 

Reward:

- AGEN is undervalued even without approval in any other country.

- Reports indicated that Russian Doctor's looked forward to the approval and use of Oncophage in Russia.

- After the good news of export authorization, the stock has dropped over a dollar to sixty cents. A rebound should be looming.

 

I'm loading up on AGEN at under a dollar. In normal market conditions, I don't see this stock losing two-thirds of it's value after positive news. Again, another small biotech with an approved treatment. AGEN is primed for a rebound when the market straightens itself out a bit, or when news of the actual Oncophage launch hits.

Zecco Holdings

The following are stocks that are down with the Market or because of economic conditions and should rebound nicely when the Market turns around and/or the economy picks up:

 

JWN, Nordstrom Inc:

 

Nordstrom is a high-end retailer that has fallen victim to the slowing economy and the downturn in the market.

 

People are looking for cheaper alternatives to the high-end luxury products of Nordstrom and that is taking it's toll on the bottom line of the company, and the stock price of JWN.

 

Nordstrom was trading near fifty dollars not too long ago and is currently trading under twenty. More bad news looms for Nordstrom, and other retailers, as the company and analysts predict a slow Holiday season. We may be afforded the opportunity to buy into this company at even lower prices.

 

As people regain confidence in the economy and start losing hold of their fears, they'll again start spending money on the high-end items that Nordstrom provides.

 

Nordstrom is a well-established name that has a wealthy clientele, and they will weather this downturn and rebound when the economy picks up.

 

Risk:

- We're in for a long economic slide and JWN slides down along with it.

- People lose interest in the high-end products which Nordstrom offers.

 

Reward:- When the economy turns around and people start spending money again, Nordstrom rebounds along with the stock price.

- JWN is trading at a third of it's 52-week high as a result of the Market and economic slowdown. A rebound will be in order.

 

Time Frame:

The market is probably at or near it's bottom, judging by the price swings during the last half hour of trading today, so JWN may level off as well. The fact that JWN may be oversold could offset more bad news that is due for the Holiday season, but I do expect to be able to buy JWN in the mid-teens. For now, I'm buying shares in the high teens and hope for a dip after disappointing 3Q results are out.

 

Once the economy gains steam again, JWN should rebound nicely.

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GOOG, Google:

 

Google recently turned ten years old, and for the last ten years, Google has become a staple in American Culture. The name Google invoked a new verb into our vocabulary and rendered other search engines as relics of the past. After GOOG's IPO of 80 dollars, the stock price surged to highs in the range of 700 dollars, before recently retreating into the low 300 dollar range.

 

The Google stock price got hit by disappointing in earnings, largely due to a crackdown on fraudulent clicks from the AdSense program, where advertisers 'Pay per click'. Naturally, once fraudulent clicks diminished, advertisers were not paying so much and Google did not rake in as much dough.

 

Once the economy headed south, advertising money was the first to go, handing Google another hit, as the bulk of their income is derived from Internet advertising. Along with the hit in revenue, GOOG is also an overall victim of the Market crash, and should rebound nicely when the economy rebounds.

 

Google, however, is giving investors more to think about than solely Internet advertising. Google recently announced their own Web browser to compete with Microsoft and they're also entering into the cell phone market.

 

Google is also putting it's money to good use in the form of researching alternative fuels, developing a new class of hybrid vehicles and continuosly looking for ways to hold the Government responsible for providing public services.

 

GOOG has been hit hard in this economy, no question, but this company is one for the ages and I'm taking advantage of this decline in stock price.

 

Risk:

- People stop 'Googling' and clicking on 'Google Ads'.

- Google's ventures into areas outside the advertising realm fail.

- A prolonged economic downturn continues to hammer the GOOG stock price.

 

Reward:

- The economy rebounds and advertising money returns to the norms.

- Google's ventures into the browser and cell phone markets are met with success.

- Google continues to grow it's brand name.

 

Timeframe:

Honestly, this is one that VFC is holding for life. After missing the boat on Google's IPO, this is a stock that I am treating as a mutual fund, buying a little bit here and a little bit there. In the short term, Google should start rebounding when the Market rebounds. The stock was due for a correction, but VFC thinks GOOG is a tad bit oversold.

TradeKing

 

T, AT&T:

The Telecom sector has taken a huge hit in this economy, and we may have not seen the lows yet. On that note, AT&T (T) is trading at a two-year low, let alone it's 52-week low, but much of that could be attributed to the market conditions. The bad news may not be over for AT&T, and the rest of Telecom, as 3Q estimates are being re-estimated to the downside.

 

As with JWN, I'll be buying T when it's being kicked while it's down. Currently trading in the low twenties, it's possible that we see the teens when it's all said and done.

 

AT&T is an innovative and historic company, and that is why I'm picking it out of the Telecom sector, and I expect a nice rebound when this economic mess begins to clean itself up.

 

Risk:

- AT&T is unable to rebound due to competition and market conditions.

 

Reward:

- Trading at a 52-week low, there is plenty of room for T to rebound when the Market begins to rebound.

Paradysz Matera

 

A couple of high-risk, high-reward stocks!

 

SIRI

 

Sirius suffered big time during the 18 months that it took the Government to approve the merger with XM. Had the merger been approved in half that time, many of the cost-cutting measures put in place by the combined company would be paying fruition as I type, but that is not the case.

 

XM debt soared, and SIRI could not move forward without a final decision by the Government, so now we have a SIRI stock that is trading at below fifty cents. I look at this scenario in two lights.

 

ONE: Why was the Government so tied up investigating the SIRI-XM merger while the US Economy was on the brink of collapse? It's no wonder they had no time to prevent this mess with the time they spent on the SIRI-XM merger!

 

TWO: Again, Government inaction on the merger only hurt the little guy, the average investor. The big boys made out because they were heavily shorting the Sirius stock and the lobbyists made out because each company spent hundreds of thousands on lobbying costs and the Government made out because they 'benefit' from the lobbyists.

 

Here's where the little guy can make out. BUY SIRI at this price.

 

The amount of debt that this company holds is huge, but CEO Mel Karmazin wants to take care of this debt NOW, rather than LATER.

 

SIRI has been hit extra-hard in this market because the short sellers have been making money on SIRI during the whole ride down. It's also been hit hard because of the credit crunch. With opportunities of good credit agreements dwindling, the Sirius-XM credit crunch became an even bigger deal.

 

Yet another reason that Sirius-XM has been hit so hard, is the fact that the auto industry has been crushed, and SatRad is highly dependent on new car sales, where they can advertise their service for a few months and then drivers pay thereafter.

 

With all the bad news on the SIRI stock, it's still way oversold because of these market conditions (in VFC's opinion).

 

There is no guarantee that SIRI will rebound right away, and there is always the risk of a reverse-split or a bankruptcy, but Mel Karmazin has a great resume and I believe that SIRI will rebound when we start to see the results of the $450 million in synergies that are coming as a result of the merger.

 

Aside from the synergies, when the shorts cover and the XM-inherited debt is under control, investors should be in for an upturn.

 

Another option that is out there, but I have not seen anything except rumor on this, is the possibility of a buyout. It's always an option, as SatRad could be interfaced with such applications as cell phones, GPS, and other new-generation gadgets.

 

I'm buying lots of SIRI at these prices.

 

Risk:

- Huge debt bill leads the company to bankruptcy.

- Company cannot recover from slumping auto and SatRad sales.

- Company is forced into less than acceptable terms in financing debt.

- Merger synergies don't pay off as much as planned.

- Possibility of a reverse split.

 

Reward:

- Shorts cover inducing an increase in stock price.

- Market rebounds and SIRI goes along with it.

- Synergies begin to pay off sooner than expected.

- New pricing plans attract more listeners and greater content.

- Consumers learn about the impressive lineup of SatRad content and buy subscriptions.

- Advertising revenue picks up as the economy picks up.

 

Timeframe:

I'm looking at SIRI five years down the road, but I think we could be rewarded long before that. SIRI is a highly manipulated stock, and the large amount of short sellers in SIRI make it tough to predict anything, but at forty cents, SIRI is a screaming BUY, in my opinion.

As long as this stock is below a dollar, I'm buying strong.

The Shepard Investment Strategist

CSUH.OB, Celsius:

Celsius Holdings, CSUH.OB, is a risky play, but one that could pay off huge for patient investors.

 

Celsius is the world's first calorie-burning beverage that comes in five carbonated flavors and two non-carbonated, Green Tea flavors.

 

The stock has been hammered in both the down market, and, allegedly, buy a large shareholder who has been continuously selling shares, adding to the downward pressure on the stock.

 

Celsius has, until now, relied almost solely on word-of-mouth advertising, but the future looks more ambitious now that supplement business icon Carl DeSantis has jumped on board.

 

CEO Steve Haley recently informed investors that an advertising campaign is underway, and we could see TV ads soon after the elections. Radio ads are already in play.

 

It's my opinion that the next three quarters are crucial for the existence of this company. We need to see more reorders coming in and we need to see real growth due to the large amount of distribution agreements that were announced earlier this year.

 

Originally, I bought CSUH.OB with a five-year plan in mind, and I have not strayed to far from that thought process, but we can see results a lot sooner than that if the product catches on like I believe it could.

 

I've bought in the teens, but I've been averaging down at six, five, four and now three cents to bring my average to near seven cents.

 

This stock, as well as the product, is a real sleeper. Once people find out about the product, they'll find the stock, and we could be in for some real rewards.

 

Again, CSUH.OB carries risk, but we all know VFC loves risk and he loves reward.

 

Risk:

- The company does not have the financial resources to cover operations and goes bust.

- Celsius does not sell as expected and distributors do not reorder the product, leading the company to bankruptcy.

- The slumping economy takes the extra money out of people's pockets that they would be spending on a luxury item such as Celsius.

 

Reward:

- The product catches on and an increase of sales leads to an increase in stock price.

- The TV and Radio advertising campaign leads to an increase in sales.

- More international deals are announced, attracting new investors.

- New national deals attract new investors.

- Celsius is bought out by a larger, already established corporation.

 

Another factor to consider, it seems that every few months we get an unexpected increase in share price, giving the investor an opportunity to sell into the spike and pocket some profit.

 

With a stock like CSUH.OB, you could be in for some serious rewards, or in for a disappointment if the company goes bust.

 

I happen to believe we're in for good things once the advertising campaign gains traction.

 

Timeframe:

I'm here with a five year plan, but i'll sell a few shares into any significant spikes. Now that I'm loaded in at the current prices, I'll be holding and keeping a close eye at the numbers for the next few quarters.

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GE, General Electric:

GE has been hammered by a combination of bad news and the market conditions.

 

With a 52-week high of over forty dollars, the stock is currently trading near twenty dollars.

 

Much of this has to do with the market conditions, but the company has been hit with bad news and reduced profits. Months ago, GE was the victim of rumors that the company was doing business in Iran, and recently, it's financial services division has taken a hit.

 

What I do like about GE, and gives me confidence in a rebound, are:

 

One, GE is one of the largest companies in the world, and I don't see it failing.

Two, Warren Buffet has just invested three billion dollars into GE. VFC does not argue with Warren Buffet. 'Nuff said on that one.

 

Risk:

- Economy and market kill GE and it's financial services division.

- It's discovered that Warren Buffet was abducted by aliens and forced to invest three billion of his dollars into GE.

 

Reward:

- Buffet picks right again.

- GE rebounds when the market and economy rebound.

- GE is somewhat oversold and due for a rebound.

- GE is cash-heavy.

 

Timeframe:

I'm looking at GE to rebound with the economy. I'm not convinced we've seen the bottom with GE, but the company's large cash position give it a nice cushion to the drop.

Although GE should rebound with the market, I'm looking at GE as a long-term investment, accumulating a little bit at a time and looking way down the road.

Breast Cancer Awareness Gifts

DNDN, Dendreon:

Dendreon is a favorite of mine, not because of the stock, but because it could be the breakthrough cancer immunotherapy that sets the stage for cancer treatment of the future.

 

Dendreon just released encouraging interim results for it's IMPACT Phase III trial for Provenge, a prostate cancer treatment, with final results due out next year. Any price below ten dollars is a steal if Provenge ultimately gains approval in the US. With no guarantee that Provenge will be approved, DNDN is highly risky, but could be a stock that rewards investors for life, and, more importanty, rewards patients who suffer from prostate cancer.

 

DNDN was heavily shorted before the latest news release, and many shorts probably covered after the recent news which pushed the stock to near the seven dollar level. It's likely that new shorts moved in and are riding this stock down into the five dollar range where it sits now. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop even lower, perhaps into the two dollar range, based on the large amount of shorts and the amount of time that traders can trade the stock before final results of the IMPACT trial are released.

 

There is news that can influence the stock before then, such as news of a partnership or buyout, but the company has been resistant to both options in the past.

 

Provenge has demonstrated efficacy, and is proven to be safe, but the FDA has thus far refused to approve the breakthrough immunotherapy.

 

Start reading here about the long Provenge saga, including such themes as corruption, manipulation and conflict of interest.

 

Dendreon is also working on a Breast cancer immunotherapy called Nuevenge.

 

Risk:

- Provenge fails to meet endpoints and does not meet FDA standards for approval. Stock will sink to below a dollar on this news.

 

Reward:

- Provenge is ultimately approved, stock price could soar into the forty or fifty dollar range.

 

While there is more to the Dendreon pipeline, the future of this company rests on the results of the Proveng trial.

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The stock market is still looking for it's new bottom and millions of people are selling their holdings out of fear of what's to come. Indications are, we may be close to a bottom with the violent price swings we say today, and it's time to look at some rock-bottom deals.

 

There's billions of dollars that are sitting on the sidelines in low-interest money market accounts or government securities that will re-enter the market when the time is right, and we saw a taste of that today when the market actually hit 300 points up during the last half hour of trading.

 

My plan is to be in BEFORE the market rebounds. Chasing a stock run is never as much fun as being along for the ride.

 

In VFC's opinion, it's actually easier to find good stock picks in a down market, because many stocks are oversold. In an up market, many stocks are overvalued and you've got to tread carefully because any hint of a stock market correction could immediately send stock prices back to earth.

 

Short sellers take control when they feel a stock is overpriced, and when the market drops, it's the short sellers that bought at the highs that make money. Once the market begins to rebound, the short sellers will 'cover' and go long, and that's when we could be in for some pretty good rides.

 

With the crash of '08 in full effect, I'm on the hunt for some bargains, which is not unusual; I'm always on the hunt for good 'Risk vs Reward' stocks. Here's a few that VFC is looking at going forward. Most you've already seen here at VFC's Stock House.

 

VFC likes the following two stocks because these companies have both received recent drug approvals but their stocks have followed the market down. I believe these two have the makings of a rebound.

 

EPCT, Epicept Corporation:

Epicept has just received a full marketing authorization from the European Commission to market Ceplene in Europe. Ceplene treats patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) in first remission and will be available to patients in 30 countries as soon as 1Q 2009. Ceplene is estimated to bring in approx $200 million per year and has been granted Orphan Drug states by the EMEA. The company President and CEO, Jack Talley, has indicated that there are ongoing talks for a European partner to market and distribute Ceplene. News on a partnership should come before year end.

Aside from Ceplene, Epicept has five additional drugs or treatments in their pipeline, most notably Azixa, a treatment for metastatic brain cancer which Epicept has partnered with Myriad.

 

Ceplene alone, now that it is approved, should have EPCT trading well above a dollar, or even closer to it's price target of $6.00 (according to Yahoo! Finance) but in this market investors are quick to take a profit (EPCT is a triple over the past few months), and short sellers are quick to take control.

 

When the Market rebounds, EPCT is a sure bet to rise.

Risks:

- All biotechs are risky.

- Ceplene may not reach sales goals.

- Other drugs in the pipeline may fail trials.

- Partnership deal may not turn out to be profitable for the company.

- If Ceplene fails to reach expectations, the company may go bust before the completion of addtional trials.

 

Reward:

- Ceplene is approved to be marketed and sold in 30 countries and will possibly bring in up to $200 million per year and Epicept's 50 million dollar Market Cap does not reflect the potential of the company. EPCT is undervalued.

- Company just received a $50 million stock/debt shelf which should be enough to cover expenses until Ceplene starts bringing in money, alleviating fear of the company going bust.

- Updates on Azixa trials have brought the EPCT stock to over four dollars in the past. Now, with an approved drug (Ceplene), EPCT could rised even higher than that on an Azixa update.

- Positive updates from the other four drugs in trials could add to any upward momentum.

 

Timeframe for Payback: When the market rebounds, EPCT should immediately begin to reflect the good news that the company has recently reported.

I also have EPCT as a long term pick, and will hold shares through the conclusion of Azixa trials, if not longer. I've traded in and out of EPCT in the past, and I'll sell into any large spikes and I'll buy into any dips.

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AGEN, Antigenics Inc:

 

Antigenics, AGEN, has received approval to market and distribute Oncophage, an immunotherapy treatment to treat patients with cancer of the kidney, in Russia. The only large hurdle that would impede Antigenics quick launch of Oncophage was that the US FDA had to approve the exportation of Oncophage to Russia after being produced in the USA. The FDA has approved that export and, in VFC's opinion, due to the market conditions and probable short sellers who reacted to the news, the AGEN stock has declined nearly two-thirds of it's post-news value, to approx 60 cents.

 

Antigenics also intends to file a Marketing Authorization Application to the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) by the end of this year.

 

I believe AGEN has been manipulated (traded too high in the up-market after DNDN news last year, setting up an opportune time for shorts to get in) and this stock should recover to reflect the positive Oncophage approval when the market rebounds.

 

Risk:

- Oncophage does not take off in Russia and fails to pull in serious revenue.

- Antigenics fails to gain approval for Oncophage anywhere else in the world.

 

Reward:

- AGEN is undervalued even without approval in any other country.

- Reports indicated that Russian Doctor's looked forward to the approval and use of Oncophage in Russia.

- After the good news of export authorization, the stock has dropped over a dollar to sixty cents. A rebound should be looming.

 

I'm loading up on AGEN at under a dollar. In normal market conditions, I don't see this stock losing two-thirds of it's value after positive news. Again, another small biotech with an approved treatment. AGEN is primed for a rebound when the market straightens itself out a bit, or when news of the actual Oncophage launch hits.

Zecco Holdings

The following are stocks that are down with the Market or because of economic conditions and should rebound nicely when the Market turns around and/or the economy picks up:

 

JWN, Nordstrom Inc:

 

Nordstrom is a high-end retailer that has fallen victim to the slowing economy and the downturn in the market.

 

People are looking for cheaper alternatives to the high-end luxury products of Nordstrom and that is taking it's toll on the bottom line of the company, and the stock price of JWN.

 

Nordstrom was trading near fifty dollars not too long ago and is currently trading under twenty. More bad news looms for Nordstrom, and other retailers, as the company and analysts predict a slow Holiday season. We may be afforded the opportunity to buy into this company at even lower prices.

 

As people regain confidence in the economy and start losing hold of their fears, they'll again start spending money on the high-end items that Nordstrom provides.

 

Nordstrom is a well-established name that has a wealthy clientele, and they will weather this downturn and rebound when the economy picks up.

 

Risk:

- We're in for a long economic slide and JWN slides down along with it.

- People lose interest in the high-end products which Nordstrom offers.

 

Reward:- When the economy turns around and people start spending money again, Nordstrom rebounds along with the stock price.

- JWN is trading at a third of it's 52-week high as a result of the Market and economic slowdown. A rebound will be in order.

 

Time Frame:

The market is probably at or near it's bottom, judging by the price swings during the last half hour of trading today, so JWN may level off as well. The fact that JWN may be oversold could offset more bad news that is due for the Holiday season, but I do expect to be able to buy JWN in the mid-teens. For now, I'm buying shares in the high teens and hope for a dip after disappointing 3Q results are out.

 

Once the economy gains steam again, JWN should rebound nicely.

Halloween 2008 15% Off

GOOG, Google:

 

Google recently turned ten years old, and for the last ten years, Google has become a staple in American Culture. The name Google invoked a new verb into our vocabulary and rendered other search engines as relics of the past. After GOOG's IPO of 80 dollars, the stock price surged to highs in the range of 700 dollars, before recently retreating into the low 300 dollar range.

 

The Google stock price got hit by disappointing in earnings, largely due to a crackdown on fraudulent clicks from the AdSense program, where advertisers 'Pay per click'. Naturally, once fraudulent clicks diminished, advertisers were not paying so much and Google did not rake in as much dough.

 

Once the economy headed south, advertising money was the first to go, handing Google another hit, as the bulk of their income is derived from Internet advertising. Along with the hit in revenue, GOOG is also an overall victim of the Market crash, and should rebound nicely when the economy rebounds.

 

Google, however, is giving investors more to think about than solely Internet advertising. Google recently announced their own Web browser to compete with Microsoft and they're also entering into the cell phone market.

 

Google is also putting it's money to good use in the form of researching alternative fuels, developing a new class of hybrid vehicles and continuosly looking for ways to hold the Government responsible for providing public services.

 

GOOG has been hit hard in this economy, no question, but this company is one for the ages and I'm taking advantage of this decline in stock price.

 

Risk:

- People stop 'Googling' and clicking on 'Google Ads'.

- Google's ventures into areas outside the advertising realm fail.

- A prolonged economic downturn continues to hammer the GOOG stock price.

 

Reward:

- The economy rebounds and advertising money returns to the norms.

- Google's ventures into the browser and cell phone markets are met with success.

- Google continues to grow it's brand name.

 

Timeframe:

Honestly, this is one that VFC is holding for life. After missing the boat on Google's IPO, this is a stock that I am treating as a mutual fund, buying a little bit here and a little bit there. In the short term, Google should start rebounding when the Market rebounds. The stock was due for a correction, but VFC thinks GOOG is a tad bit oversold.

TradeKing

 

T, AT&T:

The Telecom sector has taken a huge hit in this economy, and we may have not seen the lows yet. On that note, AT&T (T) is trading at a two-year low, let alone it's 52-week low, but much of that could be attributed to the market conditions. The bad news may not be over for AT&T, and the rest of Telecom, as 3Q estimates are being re-estimated to the downside.

 

As with JWN, I'll be buying T when it's being kicked while it's down. Currently trading in the low twenties, it's possible that we see the teens when it's all said and done.

 

AT&T is an innovative and historic company, and that is why I'm picking it out of the Telecom sector, and I expect a nice rebound when this economic mess begins to clean itself up.

 

Risk:

- AT&T is unable to rebound due to competition and market conditions.

 

Reward:

- Trading at a 52-week low, there is plenty of room for T to rebound when the Market begins to rebound.

Paradysz Matera

 

A couple of high-risk, high-reward stocks!

 

SIRI

 

Sirius suffered big time during the 18 months that it took the Government to approve the merger with XM. Had the merger been approved in half that time, many of the cost-cutting measures put in place by the combined company would be paying fruition as I type, but that is not the case.

 

XM debt soared, and SIRI could not move forward without a final decision by the Government, so now we have a SIRI stock that is trading at below fifty cents. I look at this scenario in two lights.

 

ONE: Why was the Government so tied up investigating the SIRI-XM merger while the US Economy was on the brink of collapse? It's no wonder they had no time to prevent this mess with the time they spent on the SIRI-XM merger!

 

TWO: Again, Government inaction on the merger only hurt the little guy, the average investor. The big boys made out because they were heavily shorting the Sirius stock and the lobbyists made out because each company spent hundreds of thousands on lobbying costs and the Government made out because they 'benefit' from the lobbyists.

 

Here's where the little guy can make out. BUY SIRI at this price.

 

The amount of debt that this company holds is huge, but CEO Mel Karmazin wants to take care of this debt NOW, rather than LATER.

 

SIRI has been hit extra-hard in this market because the short sellers have been making money on SIRI during the whole ride down. It's also been hit hard because of the credit crunch. With opportunities of good credit agreements dwindling, the Sirius-XM credit crunch became an even bigger deal.

 

Yet another reason that Sirius-XM has been hit so hard, is the fact that the auto industry has been crushed, and SatRad is highly dependent on new car sales, where they can advertise their service for a few months and then drivers pay thereafter.

 

With all the bad news on the SIRI stock, it's still way oversold because of these market conditions (in VFC's opinion).

 

There is no guarantee that SIRI will rebound right away, and there is always the risk of a reverse-split or a bankruptcy, but Mel Karmazin has a great resume and I believe that SIRI will rebound when we start to see the results of the $450 million in synergies that are coming as a result of the merger.

 

Aside from the synergies, when the shorts cover and the XM-inherited debt is under control, investors should be in for an upturn.

 

Another option that is out there, but I have not seen anything except rumor on this, is the possibility of a buyout. It's always an option, as SatRad could be interfaced with such applications as cell phones, GPS, and other new-generation gadgets.

 

I'm buying lots of SIRI at these prices.

 

Risk:

- Huge debt bill leads the company to bankruptcy.

- Company cannot recover from slumping auto and SatRad sales.

- Company is forced into less than acceptable terms in financing debt.

- Merger synergies don't pay off as much as planned.

- Possibility of a reverse split.

 

Reward:

- Shorts cover inducing an increase in stock price.

- Market rebounds and SIRI goes along with it.

- Synergies begin to pay off sooner than expected.

- New pricing plans attract more listeners and greater content.

- Consumers learn about the impressive lineup of SatRad content and buy subscriptions.

- Advertising revenue picks up as the economy picks up.

 

Timeframe:

I'm looking at SIRI five years down the road, but I think we could be rewarded long before that. SIRI is a highly manipulated stock, and the large amount of short sellers in SIRI make it tough to predict anything, but at forty cents, SIRI is a screaming BUY, in my opinion.

As long as this stock is below a dollar, I'm buying strong.

The Shepard Investment Strategist

CSUH.OB, Celsius:

Celsius Holdings, CSUH.OB, is a risky play, but one that could pay off huge for patient investors.

 

Celsius is the world's first calorie-burning beverage that comes in five carbonated flavors and two non-carbonated, Green Tea flavors.

 

The stock has been hammered in both the down market, and, allegedly, buy a large shareholder who has been continuously selling shares, adding to the downward pressure on the stock.

 

Celsius has, until now, relied almost solely on word-of-mouth advertising, but the future looks more ambitious now that supplement business icon Carl DeSantis has jumped on board.

 

CEO Steve Haley recently informed investors that an advertising campaign is underway, and we could see TV ads soon after the elections. Radio ads are already in play.

 

It's my opinion that the next three quarters are crucial for the existence of this company. We need to see more reorders coming in and we need to see real growth due to the large amount of distribution agreements that were announced earlier this year.

 

Originally, I bought CSUH.OB with a five-year plan in mind, and I have not strayed to far from that thought process, but we can see results a lot sooner than that if the product catches on like I believe it could.

 

I've bought in the teens, but I've been averaging down at six, five, four and now three cents to bring my average to near seven cents.

 

This stock, as well as the product, is a real sleeper. Once people find out about the product, they'll find the stock, and we could be in for some real rewards.

 

Again, CSUH.OB carries risk, but we all know VFC loves risk and he loves reward.

 

Risk:

- The company does not have the financial resources to cover operations and goes bust.

- Celsius does not sell as expected and distributors do not reorder the product, leading the company to bankruptcy.

- The slumping economy takes the extra money out of people's pockets that they would be spending on a luxury item such as Celsius.

 

Reward:

- The product catches on and an increase of sales leads to an increase in stock price.

- The TV and Radio advertising campaign leads to an increase in sales.

- More international deals are announced, attracting new investors.

- New national deals attract new investors.

- Celsius is bought out by a larger, already established corporation.

 

Another factor to consider, it seems that every few months we get an unexpected increase in share price, giving the investor an opportunity to sell into the spike and pocket some profit.

 

With a stock like CSUH.OB, you could be in for some serious rewards, or in for a disappointment if the company goes bust.

 

I happen to believe we're in for good things once the advertising campaign gains traction.

 

Timeframe:

I'm here with a five year plan, but i'll sell a few shares into any significant spikes. Now that I'm loaded in at the current prices, I'll be holding and keeping a close eye at the numbers for the next few quarters.

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GE, General Electric:

GE has been hammered by a combination of bad news and the market conditions.

 

With a 52-week high of over forty dollars, the stock is currently trading near twenty dollars.

 

Much of this has to do with the market conditions, but the company has been hit with bad news and reduced profits. Months ago, GE was the victim of rumors that the company was doing business in Iran, and recently, it's financial services division has taken a hit.

 

What I do like about GE, and gives me confidence in a rebound, are:

 

One, GE is one of the largest companies in the world, and I don't see it failing.

Two, Warren Buffet has just invested three billion dollars into GE. VFC does not argue with Warren Buffet. 'Nuff said on that one.

 

Risk:

- Economy and market kill GE and it's financial services division.

- It's discovered that Warren Buffet was abducted by aliens and forced to invest three billion of his dollars into GE.

 

Reward:

- Buffet picks right again.

- GE rebounds when the market and economy rebound.

- GE is somewhat oversold and due for a rebound.

- GE is cash-heavy.

 

Timeframe:

I'm looking at GE to rebound with the economy. I'm not convinced we've seen the bottom with GE, but the company's large cash position give it a nice cushion to the drop.

Although GE should rebound with the market, I'm looking at GE as a long-term investment, accumulating a little bit at a time and looking way down the road.

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DNDN, Dendreon:

Dendreon is a favorite of mine, not because of the stock, but because it could be the breakthrough cancer immunotherapy that sets the stage for cancer treatment of the future.

 

Dendreon just released encouraging interim results for it's IMPACT Phase III trial for Provenge, a prostate cancer treatment, with final results due out next year. Any price below ten dollars is a steal if Provenge ultimately gains approval in the US. With no guarantee that Provenge will be approved, DNDN is highly risky, but could be a stock that rewards investors for life, and, more importanty, rewards patients who suffer from prostate cancer.

 

DNDN was heavily shorted before the latest news release, and many shorts probably covered after the recent news which pushed the stock to near the seven dollar level. It's likely that new shorts moved in and are riding this stock down into the five dollar range where it sits now. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop even lower, perhaps into the two dollar range, based on the large amount of shorts and the amount of time that traders can trade the stock before final results of the IMPACT trial are released.

 

There is news that can influence the stock before then, such as news of a partnership or buyout, but the company has been resistant to both options in the past.

 

Provenge has demonstrated efficacy, and is proven to be safe, but the FDA has thus far refused to approve the breakthrough immunotherapy.

 

Start reading here about the long Provenge saga, including such themes as corruption, manipulation and conflict of interest.

 

Dendreon is also working on a Breast cancer immunotherapy called Nuevenge.

 

Risk:

- Provenge fails to meet endpoints and does not meet FDA standards for approval. Stock will sink to below a dollar on this news.

 

Reward:

- Provenge is ultimately approved, stock price could soar into the forty or fifty dollar range.

 

While there is more to the Dendreon pipeline, the future of this company rests on the results of the Proveng trial.

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