ACTC.ob: Shares of Advanced Cell Technology closed the day on Thursday at twelve cents, up over sixteen percent on the day.
The company announced via press release that it will present at the OneMedForum 2010 Emerging Company Finance Conference next Tuesday, January 12th, in San Fransisco, California.
Advanced Cell is still a long away off from bringing anything to market, but it's a decent long term stem cell pick, in my opinion, and is still worth accumulating on the dips.
I don't expect anything new to be presented in San Fransicso, but it'll be a platform to increase awareness.
Disclosure: VFC is long ACTC.
BVTI.pk: Shares of Biovest International spiked to nearly ninety cents on Thursday after the company announced in a press release that BiovaxID, a cancer immunotherapeutic vaccine that treats lymphoma, has received Orphan Drug Status from the FDA. A BLA will be filed with the FDA for BiovaxID by mid-2010, according to the PR.
Additionally, Biovest’s President, Mr. Samuel S. Duffey, indicated that the company would emerge from bankruptcy with the current shareholder base in tact - defintely good news for existing shareholders.
Thursday's announcement definitely bodes well for the future of the company and its existing shareholders, but I took advantage of the price spike and sold the majority of my shares into that spike; partly because I couldn't resist the percentage gains after adding shares last April, but also because I've got some remaining scepticism about the Phase III trial results that the company will use to file the BLA later this year.
Initially, the Phase III results were to be released in April of of 2008, but the company seemed to want to delay the announcement of the results; instead of releasing the results that the company had promised, investors instead were told that an independant committee reccommended that the results be unblinded.
The price spiked somewhat on the news, but the spike was not significant enough to have me believe that investors were confident in the trial results. That little 'bait and switch' tactic inclined me to sell out of my position at that time.
The company then informed investors that results of the trial would be announced in September of 2008, and since the stock was trading for roughly thirty cents before that time, I considered buying back in but I didn't have the free cash on the sidelines to do so.
My suspicions grew about BVTI grew when Biovest released a PR about BiovaxID that reminded me of a fluff PR that Biovest's parant company, Accentia Pharmaceuticals, issued about Sinuphase shortly before it was announced that Sinuphase trials failed.
Again, I didn't get the impression that there was a whole lot of confidence from anyone that the BiovaxID Phase III trials were successful.
I finally bought back in in November of 2008 after Biovest announced that BiovaxID would take part in a named patient program in Europe. In my opinion, that would allow the company to gather data from any patients that took part in that program, and eventually that data could help in garnering approval in Europe. For a quarter per share, I liked the risk-reward.
Then the market crash struck and BVTI collapsed to roughly five cents - around the same time that the same thing happened to TTNP - and for those prices I could not resist loading up on both of those stocks.
That brings us back to Thursday's press release; because of the scepticism that I felt surrounded the Phase III trial over the past two years, I wasn't ready to hold my entire position through Thursday's price increase.
That being said, I'm going to watch the price action and may buy back some shares at a lower price if we drop to below fifty cents or so because I do believe that the amount of time that has passed since the trial concluded has allowed the company to gather more data on the patients. That could be a good thing because, as we know from watching other cancer vaccine treatments, the longer the amount of time that passes after a cancer vaccine treatment, the better the overall results become.
In my opinion, that is why the company has taken so long to file the BLA (if original results were that definitive I think that the BLA would have come much sooner.
So, while the future once again looks bright for Biovest, I would still tread with caution with BVTI. The FDA has demonstrated with Dendreon's Provenge that the agency will wait for definitive data before even considering approval, and although I'm no doctor, I've seen enough debate online regarding the BiovaxID trials to become a little hesitant.
That being said, if BiovaxID does receive approval, then we're in for a huge ride up with this stock and that potential alone is worth the risk of an investment.
If you want in, buy the dips. If you bought for sub ten cents, I'd have to say take some profit and enjoy it and if you're about even - then it could be worth holding for news later in the year.
Disclosure: VFC is long BVTI.
DNDN: Dendreon has started the new decade with a bang, already surpassing the thirty dollar mark in the first week of trading.
An FDA decision on Provenge should come later this year, and in my opinion, it looks like the market is betting on an approval this time.
As the share price rises, the price of options is also pretty expensive, but the long term potential of DNDN is still huge - even trading for over thirty bucks - if Provenge is approved.
I firmly believe that cancer immunotherapy treatments are the next big thing in cancer treatment and if Provenge is approved, it will be considered the godfather of the cancer vaccines for a long time to come - in my opinion.
If you're looking to get in, try and get in on some dips, but this stock could hit the forty dollar level by the time approval news is due.
Don't take the fact that I have no position in the stock to indicate that I'm negative on the stock, but I've already made my money on DNDN and I'm hesitant to buy back into stocks that I have already made significant money on unless there is a significant drop in price - which obviously is not the case with DNDN.
Disclosure: No position.
EPCT: I announced late last year that I finally pulled out of Epicept because after years of promises, nothing significant had materialized in terms of a European partner for Ceplene and the share price continued to stagnate.
The first PR of 2010 confirms my satisfaction of leaving this investment behind. Epicept on Thursday announced that the company will present at the OneMedPlace Finance Forum in San Fransisco on Wednesday next week.
C'mon, now, if the CEO is still bouncing around the globe presenting slideshows at these finance forums, then I'm questioning how close these guys really think they are to any sort of significant revenue stream.
For the sake of those shareholders that are still hanging on with Epicept, I hope that I'm wrong and real news materializes very soon, but I'm still not buying it.
It's to the point now for Mr. Talley, that if you don't have anything to say about a partner, then don't say anything at all. No one cares at this point about a presentation in San Fransisco.
Disclosure: No position.
GNVC: Shares of GenVec traded nearly twenty percent to the upside on Thursday after the company announced that its stock had regained NASDAQ listing compliance.
Maybe even more significant to the run was the fact that Roth Capital initiated coverage of the company with a 'BUY' rating.
Shares of GenVec could continue to trade with increased volatility as the TNFerade Phase III pancreatic cancer trial develops.
Disclosure: No position.
CBAI.ob: Shares of Cord Blood America continued an impressive climb on Thursday, rising to as high as nearly two cents before retreating downward. The stock closed up sixteen percent for the day.
While I continue to believe in the longer term potential of the stock, I had to sell a few shares for .0185 on Thursday because I think that at some point a retracement will be due.
Continued hype could take the price significantly higher still - and I would be along for that ride with what I have left in the stock - but I'm always a fan of taking some profit off the table after significant gains have been realized because you never know what is going to happen tomorrow.
If I see a price of .015 or below again, then I may buy back in, but for now I'll hold what I have and look for concrete actions by the company that can justify the ever-growing market cap at some point in the mid to near future.
Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.