TTNP.pk: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals continue to trade in a somewhat flat trading range as investors eagerly await the anticipated fourth quarter launch of Fanapt - a schizophrenia drug produced by Vanda Pharmaceuticals - of which Titan will receive between 8-10% in royalties.
It's been long speculated by investors, including VFC, that Titan and Vanda will both be a part of the same acquisition/partnership deal and that news regarding such would be released at some time just before the fourth quarter launch of Fanapt.
With the fourth quarter set to begin in just days, investors will eagerly anticipate news, but it may be best to temper expectations for the time being because the company has not released an official launch date, only a three-month time frame. The Fanapt website confirms the vagueness surrounding the launch by simply stating that Fanapt will be "Available in pharmacies soon."
It's possible that Vanda and any acquiring company could still be waiting on a patent extension for Fanapt before announcing any deal, but nothing has changed regarding TTNP nor VNDA that should spur impatient investors to sell while waiting for news.
The fourth quarter is just about upon us and one thing could be assumed - we'll get news one way or another regarding the fate of Fanapt, Vanda and Titan Pharmaceuticals.
As always, I like the potential of the TTNP.pk stock better than VNDA. Titan has Probuphine and its drug delivery system sitting in Phase III trials and positive news on both Fanapt and Probuphine could mean good things for the TTNP stock, regardless of any possible buyout.
As is the case with many stocks that have already enjoyed nice runs this year - sometimes you just have to hurry up and wait. With TTNP, I think the wait will be well worth it.
Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.pk.
KERX: In an early Tuesday press release Keryx Pharmaceuticals released positive information regarding the continued "impressive" efficacy of it's treatment for Advanced Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma, Perifosine. This news followed the recent announcement of positive Phase II trials for Zerenex, the company's treatment for developing kidney disease.
While I do believe that KERX, based on the Phase II results of both of the above mentioned drugs, is a good pick for the long term, we're still only talking about Phase II trial results and both drug candidates are still a long ways off before they have a chance to make it to market. That is why, in my opinion, the stock could see a slide back down to the $2 level - or below - once again.
A recent stock offering was announced for $2.50/share - in a move that the company says will raise $20 million towards funding Phase III trials - but it's common in the biotech sector to see a stock price drop below an offering price in the weeks following the offering.
I still like KERX as an accumulation play, but I would temper accumulation at these prices and see if it drops at all.
That being said, KERX could turn into a real winner later on down the road if Perifosine and Zerenex continue to impress. It also may be worth looking out for a partnership deal - I'm not so sure that the recently raised $20 million will be enough to carry both drugs through Phase III trials. With positive Phase II already in the basket, a larger pharma may wish to take a chance on one or both of the drugs and offer Keryx an up front payment to do so.
Accumulate KERX for the long term, but don't be surprised if it dips to the $2 level again.
Disclosure: Sold position for just over $3.
