Disclaimer: VFC has no affiliation with Cel-Sci Corp or with any third parties associated with the companies. VFC has received no compensation for this blog post, although there may be an unrelated advertisement or two at various locations on this blog. VFC does not offer advice or investment services and nothing you read here should be construed as such. VFC is just a guy with an opinion and access to a computer and a keyboard; bringing discussion and ideas to the table. #AhYeah.
Shares of Cel Sci Corp (CVM) went BOOM BIGGETY!!! Yesterday, 27 January 2021, soaring to a high of over forty dollars before settling back down to close the day at twenty five even. No news was released to coincide with the spike, but much of the action is likely attributed to the attention being given to highly shorted stocks by a large and effective retail investing community on Reddit, with GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) being the most notable beneficiaries of that attention. For Cel-Sci, tho, many props has to be given to the “Kill CVM Shorts” guy for his relentless supply of information and DD while following CVM for many years. His site has laid the foundation for information which investors could build upon with their own research and which gave a great assist to the BADABING BADABOOM price action yesterday.
For more info on Cel-Sci, browse my library of posts about the company dating back over a decade, or hang on for a bit and I’ll provide a happy recap.
Before moving on, tho, let’s talk a bit of that price action and the hypocrisy we see in the market place.
How many times have we seen a coordinated short attack on a stock by the big boys where a stock plummets based on a blog post by glorified bloggers such as Adam Feuerstein – which just coincidently happen to be timed with a lot of short selling – and the markets just sit and let the thing collapse (remember Dendreon (DNDN), erasing the gains had by retail investors who had done some DD and decided to take a position in that company? Plenty of times. How many inside trades have the politicians gotten away with and how many retail investors have been wiped out by the actions of the hedge funds? So many.
Now that a group of retail investors utilize resources, coordination and intelligence gathering to combat the big boys it gets attention from above? Weak. Yet all those months the big boys can short more shares than exist for a company and just crickets from above. Weaker. Almost makes you laugh.
Airfares are cheap these days, plan for that post-lockdown vacation now! Put those stock winnings to good use!Travel, see the world and get some great airfare deals!
There were six trading halts (that I remember) thrust upon CVM yesterday, which killed the upwards momentum and allowed the short-sellers to regroup and reengage. Then the trading platforms changed the rules to “look out for” the little guy, but benefited the big boys and the White House even put out a message that the Fed was “monitoring the situation” – what does that even mean anyway? Someone in their boxers with Doritos and popcorn watching the Ameritrade screen or CNBC? I hate seeing that – “monitoring the situation.” It doesn’t mean anything. In this instance, tho, since a whole bunch of political cronies and donors – I mean hedge funds – were losing big cash, someone at the White House had to “monitor” the situation to try and intimidate the markets into compliance with the “norms.”
Regardless, the action for CVM was a pleasure for the long investor community. Reading the reactions on the message boards, a whole lot of long-time holders sold some into the spike and are now riding on house money. That’s the goal, in my opinion, to investing and trading – bounce in and out enough to end up on house money to play the end game. In the case of Cel-Sci, the end game could still be huge, even after this runup. That is due to the fact that results for what is likely the largest head and neck cancer trial in history are due to be announced at any time. See below for the recap.
Why the interest?
Cel-Sci has completed (results could come at any time, any day) a robust Phase III trial testing Multikine, the company's lead developmental product, for the treatment of head and neck cancer. Multikine is one of the newer breed of cancer immunotherapy treatments, which are designed to harness the body's own immune system to fight and possibly defeat cancer cells. What is unique about Multikine, tho, is that the treatment is administered before the Standard of Care (SOC) treatment.
Why is this significant?
A patient's immune system is at its strongest prior to the commencement of SOC treatment, which includes surgery along with radiation and chemotherapy treatments. Such treatments weaken the body and therefor weaken the body's immune system, too. The vision of Multikine is to harness the patient's own immune system before it is ravaged by radiation and chemotherapy to provide the best chance for the immune system to to fight the cancer itself. In this sense, the company has eyes on moving towards a cure for cancer, rather than a treatment. (Not the words of VFC, rather ideas set forth in the most recent Cel-Sci power point presentation and some recent interviews by CEO Geert Kersten on YouTube).
Yes, using the word "cure" in association with a cancer treatment can lead to some skepticism and shock therapy, but this idea - again, according to the presentations and interviews linked above - is the goal towards which Cel-Sci wishes to march. Regardless, if successful, Multikine is likely to be considered a breakthrough cancer treatment, should it work, and the speculative investment community is keying in on this.
What is key here, is that if Multikine is successful, it will not be just a treatment - it will likely be included as a Standard of Care (SoC) for head and neck cancer, before potential approvals into the treatment of other cancer types. We're talking billions and dollars of potential for this small company. The general consensus from the investing community is that the CVM share price will hit as high as the one hundred dollar mark on positive results, while a failed trial would sink the stock to the sub-one dollar level. The company’s second pipeline product being investigated for its potential as a treatment for Covid-19, is not yet in human trials and does not have the foundation to support a higher share price on its on. CVM is still a ‘Multikine or bust’ play. Given that the general consensus from informed investors is that data could come any time from this second to April, or even a little longer, that boom or bust may be very imminent.
Premarket shares of CVM are on the rise yet again and there are a whole new slew of investors looking at it as the next GME of sorts. With the potential for a data release any day, this attention could continue to grow – but I emphasize, there are no sure things in the market, and this thing could drop just as easily as it spiked. And the trial could fail. Don’t let emotion take control and have you believe the quick rise in price can be attributed solely to a positive data leak.
Another interlude here, the NYC Congresswoman AOC made a comment on Twitter yesterday stating that the two sides to the market action were treating the market “as a casino.” This comment should be concerning to the investing community. It demonstrates her ignorance of the stock market, which is not based on the majority of luck (do some people buy and sell sh*t based on what other people say with no DD? Sure, but that’s not the norm). Investing in the market is based on research, DD, trends, and as we have seen – coordination on both sides. By AOC telling her constituents it is a “casino,” she looks to evoke an emotional response that will gather support and momentum to overregulate the market s rather than just enforce the laws that are already on the books (naked shorting and returning shares in allotted time frames, for example). It’s another example of the politicians telling the little guy what’s best for us because we are too stupid to think for ourselves. Be wary of these comments.
In true market fashion, the little guy evolved and is finally able to combat the big boys who have no concern about wiping out retail investors along their ride, although they do leave a whole lotta crumbs for the little guy in the markets, too. This Reddit crew tho, they took it to another level.
For Cel-Sci, the volatility is here to stay, it looks like, along with a higher trading range. The shorts had their day for years, the longs had their hey-day for the past two years, and everyone should well be on house money now. Remember that the share price can collapse just as easily as it spiked, so everyone should protect their investment with sound entry and exit strategies – no trading on emotion – and be prepared for the shorts to keep playing their games when they can.
Also be prepared for a data release that could come at any moment of any day.
VFC will be monitoring that situation.
VFC is long CVM.