Not too long ago, when VFC spoke of Russian and Georgian troops lining the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it looked as though Russia would use Kosovo's declaration of independence as a precedent to support their bid for the recognition of the two breakaway regions.
Kosovo, or more specifically Kosovsko Mitrovica, was to be the line in the sand drawn between East and West. Russia's determination to gain relevance amid hypocrisy was derailed when the Serb People took the course of European integration rather than go down the path of isolation that Russia had planned out for them. Josip Broz Tito of the Former Yugoslavia had previously broke his country's ties with Russia because he did not find it to be in the best interests of his people to exist under the Iron Curtain of the Soviet Union. Following in the footsteps of Tito, Serbia chose the West over the East. Although Russia staunchly supported Serbia's claim to Kosovo, the Serbs were ultimately hesitant to be sucked into the middle of a renewed Cold War and chose the course of integration rather than segregation. But when Serbia made that choice and went Westward, they undermined Russia's relevance to the International Community; they undermined the influence of the resurgent Russian State; and they left a black mark in the eye of their Slavic brothers that was darker than the Russian oil that runs through European pipelines.
They made Russia mad.
It wasn't Serbia that made Russia mad, it was the Western influence on Serbia that angered Vladimir Putin and his puppet President Dmitry Medvedev. After watching most of the former Soviet States look Westward, and standing idly by as many joined NATO, the final straw for the Russians was to watch thier long time ally Serbia head West.
It's no doubt the Kosovar State had reason to celebrate after their declaration of independence; and it's no doubt the People of Serbia made the right choice by heading West; but the only ones that did not predict a showdown in other parts of the World after these events were the ones not paying attention.
There's a reason the majority of Nations in our World have not recognized Kosovar independence; because many of these nations are dealing with breakaway regions of their own, even NATO states such as Spain, Greece and Turkey.
There was a recent rumble in the Balkans; a rumble that woke the spirits of Kosovo Polje from 1389; the spirits of Skenderbeu; and the spirits of the thousands, if not millions who have shed their blood and given their lives for the sake of the lands of the Former Yugoslavia.
Now the rumble coms from the border regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; regions that were known as the next flashpoint in the world. Known, nonetheless, to those that were paying attention.
Now the world is paying attention. The world didn't pay attention to Bosnia in 1991. The world barely paid attention to Kosovo in 1998.
The World looks to a United Nations that is not united. A United Nations that creates safe havens that aren't safe.
Russia is out to make a mark. Mother Russia is alive once again and the rest of the world will know it.
If they couldn't make their mark in Kosovo earlier this year, they made their mark in Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Russia's actions do not need to be logical; if the Russian decision-makers followed the same course of action that they did in Kosovo, they would support Georgia and not the breakaway States; just as they supported Serbia, and not the breakaway State because they recognize international borders. By changing sides and flip flopping like a politician, Russia has lost it's credibility as a Nation. Logic and consistency went out the window as Russia rolled it's tanks across borders and humiliated a far inferior Georgian military.
Mother Russia is alive and kicking.
To the defense of Russia, while their logic was misguided and hypocritical, it could be argued that for the West to remain consistent, they needed to recognize these breakaway republics, just as they have Kosovo.
It looks like that's what Georgia was counting on when they rolled their own tanks and weapons systems into these republics in an attempt to regain control of the regions, but if they had hopes of Western military intervention, they were hugely mistaken.
The Kosovar people were suppressed by the Serbs for years under Slobodan Milosevic, and the lands were ravaged by Serbian military forces. The people there deserved better, and what they got was an independent Country to call their own. But at the same time, I can't help but wonder why the West was so determined to stick it to a dead man. Slobodan Milosevic may be turning in his grave over the decision to grant Kosovo's independence, but did Slobo really care about Kosovo and the Serbian People's historic claim to it's lands? Or did Slobo care more about doing whatever he had to to maintain power?
I think we all know the answer to that question.
The Kosovo decision did not come quick, don't get me wrong, but there could have more diplomacy, especially with Serbia. After all, the Serb people chose a Westward direction the indecisive elections that followed a complete collapse of the national Government. They could have been swayed, just like they were recently. They could have been swayed earlier, and had Serbia compromised on the decision, Russia may have backed down. Russia is suffering from Rodney Dangerfield syndrome. They want, but they don't get, respect.
While Kosovo's independence is controversial, yet easily justified, there are many regions of the world looking for their own independence.
The West chose to back Kosovo amid controversy and without further diplomatic talks.
Right or wrong, there most certainly would be consequences. The first consequence came in the form of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
And while I read quote after quote from 'shocked' US politicians,
The only ones who did not see this coming....
....Were the ones not paying attention.
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