Over a decade ago when I was just a bored blogger attracted to the new wave of blogging sweeping the Internet and empowering the little guy, I published a post about this biotech blogging guy with a bigger audience than I who I felt was doing the small investors a disservice. Reading it back now, my blog post was written pretty soft (it was just a blog, after all), but many of my readers enjoyed it and spread it around the 'net at the time.
Now, many years later, I look back at that story and the story of this Feuerstein guy and I wonder how many small investors are actually pretty pissed off at this guy because he has scared them away from many money-making opportunities in the market?
Cheap plane tickets from CheapOAir since the world is opening up again!
Let's start with Cel-Sci Corp (CVM). I've written about this company probably more than any other one in the history of my blogging, aside from maybe Celsius Holdings (CELH) and Feuerstein has dedicated a whole lot of time dissin' Cel Sci along the journey of testing Multikine in treatment of head and neck cancer. Please see my previous posts for history on this potential blockbuster treatment, we'll keep this write-up just about the stock.
Shares of Cel-Sci have been in the penny range before, spiked and dipped many many times along the way due to some "Days of Our Lives" type drama, but also because that is the inherent nature of drug development in America. Small companies are forced to go to Tony Soprano and his goon squad to procure financing to bring new drugs and treatments to market. Sometimes the terms these companies get from the legal loansharks are terrible for shareholders and even worse for the company, but many new breakthroughs have come from small cap companies that persevere and in the end either bring the drug to market themselves or, probably more often than not, get bought out by or partner with a big pharma player who has billions is M&A money sitting on the sideline.
While many new drugs and treatments do come to market, many fail. In fact, the majority fail. That is where your Adam Feuerstein guy comes in. He just plays the odds and goes negative on just about everything. That is great for his personal statistics, yeah? Since the stats say more drugs will fail in the clinical stages of development, it's easy to just go overly negative on everything and be "right" most of the time. Those investors who have little interest in doing their own DD or playing the catalyst events in the biotech world swarm to him and say, "Oh you are so great, you have kept me from losing money if I had invested in X stock."
The more astute and less lazy investors or traders get pretty pissed off, tho.
Again, take Cel-Sci. Feuerd1pshltstein has been negative on this stock the entire time it rode from pennies to a recent high of forty bucks. There are numerous others, too, like Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO), which has also enjoyed a nice recent run and has been going for many years. Both have huge catalysts on the horizon regarding Phase III trials for immunotherapy treatments in cancer. Both stocks can still skyrocket on positive data releases and both have already made investors - smart ones that take money off the table on the way up - a whole lot of money.
Unless, of course, they listened to your (in)famous biotech blogger Adam Feuerstein.
It's ironic, because in the volatile world of biotech, there is so much room for shorts and longs to make money. There are many catalysts and patterns that are obvious out there in public information - SEC filings, clinical trial websites, press releases - very little is secret. These catalysts and events makes stock prices go up and down. You've got to be on the ball and it's still easy to lose money, but to ignore them altogether and listen to Feuerstein would make me wonder why someone who is so soft in the stomach would invest in the biotech world anyway and bother reading anything the biotech blogger puts out. It's nuts.
Protect your investments, try to get on house money as quickly as you can and stick to your investment strategy, don't let emotion dictate your actions, let your hard and thorough DD dictate your strategies.
And definitely don't do (or not do) something just because someone else says so. That is not just a recipe for disaster in the investing world, that is a recipe for disaster in life.
None of this is investment advice, this is just VFC keeping it as real as I can. I'm a nobody, just a guy with an opinion, a blog, and a keyboard. And a little bit of experience in a lot of things.
A couple of stocks that I'm watching right now...
Cel-Sci Corp (CVM): Already discussed above, but it looks like results of this Phase III Multikine trial can be expected in days to weeks, instead of months. This company has a long history of short attackers who still believe the trial will be deemed a failure, but if the data proves a success, then it has been estimated that the share price could hit as high as $300. I've personally been in and out of CVM for many, many years and am playing this catalyst event with house money. The company is upgrading its state-of-the-art cold fill facility outside of Baltimore, Maryland (in 2009 I wrote about my tour of the facility) and many analytic minds a lot smarter than mine predict success - check out www.killcvmshorts.com for more details and links to information provided by those analytic minds. Exciting times for Cel Sci!
Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO): As with Cel-Sci, I already mentioned this one above and data is imminent, as well. It is predicted by some that NWBO could still have a run in it up to a 10-bagger if results are positive for DCvax in the treatment of solid tumors. The share price has already had a nice recent run. General consensus from many in the retail investing community predict results by May, in time for this year's ASCO presentation. Another hot story to watch coming up.
Innovative Payroll Solutions (IPSI): Outside of my usual biotech picks, I still like to find potential hidden gems on the pink sheets. At one time Celsius Holding was a pink sheeter as CSUH and I wish I had just held on those shares I owned when it was. IPSI may not be another CSUH (now CELH), but I like this company's move into the payment solutions market, especially in second and third world countries where self-service kiosks will compete with the large lines at Western Union. They paid off their toxic debt and I took a gander at some shares last week in anticipation of a move to become current on the pinks. Today's news of an application to uplist to the Nasdaq is bonus. As always, I'll play with some trading shares to play the future on house money, but I like this one so far.
I have some time on my hands these days, so I'll try to get back to blogging.
DISCLOSURE: VFC is long CVM, IPSI, NWBO.
Disclaimer: VFC has no affiliation with any of the mentioned companies nor with any third parties associated with any of the mentioned companies. VFC has received no compensation for this blog post, although there may be an unrelated advertisement or two at various locations on this blog. VFC does not offer advice or investment services and nothing you read here should be construed as such. VFC is just a guy with an opinion and access to a computer and a keyboard; bringing discussion and ideas to the table. #AhYeah.