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VFC's Take on news and notes from around the market, and a look at whether the rebound is real for various companies:

The Market Rebound: Tuesday and Wednesday were solid 'up' days for the market after Monday's fourth-quarter open left the world wondering just how much more punishment was in store.

VFC's Take: While I don't think we'll see the punishment of 2008 and 2009, it's likely that the market mayhem is not yet over. Europe is still in trouble trying to prop up Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, and the US economy isn't all sunshine and rainbows just yet either.

A couple of 'up' days in the market does not make a rebound, but the green is making some investors giddy. That said, another solid day went by on Wall Street Wednesday leaving many to wonder whether or not the two day rebound is for real, but real or not there's been new life injected into quite a few stocks that had been dropping fast.

The last-minute spike on Wednesday's trading in many stocks makes me more nervous than not, as well, because it looks like shorts could be positioning themselves for another step downward.

Occupy Wall Street: A group of protesters have 'occupied' Wall Street in protest of capitalism and corporate greed. Movie-maker Michael Moore has hijacked this 'revolution' and looked to make himself its figurehead.

VFC's Take: It's hard to occupy Wall Street from the Brooklyn Bridge. It's also hard to claim police brutality when you're arrested for bringing Brooklyn Bridge traffic to a standstill in the busiest city in the world.

Does corporate America need a watch dog? Maybe.

But Michael Moore? This guy can't even watch his calories. The hot dog vendors in downtown Manhattan are probably ecstatic right now and looking towards an early retirement with this guy in town.


AMPE: Shares of Ampion Pharmaceuticals had seen the bottom fall out over the past couple of weeks, even though no negative news had hit the wires to support such a drop, but the swift move to the downside might have also opened up a buying opportunity since the company has a few catalysts coming due over the next couple of months that could lead to even higher price movement.

Shares spiked by over a dollar - good for a 17% increase - during late day trading on Wednesday, so the question is whether the spike could be attributed to some short covering - since it's likely that the shorts are the ones who brought it down in the first place - or whether word is getting out about this company and its pending short term catalysts.

VFC's Take: Rebound still uncertain. Barring any news release that would dictate the immediate future of the direction of AMPE's share price, I'd expect some more volatile trading with the market, but this one still looks like a potential big winner over the long term as the company moves its pipeline of repositioned products towards commercialization.

Any dips created by the shorts or by market forces are nice opportunities to accumulate.

KERX: Keryx had recently dropped below the three dollar mark, although nothing from either of the company's late stage products came to light that would support such a drop. That made KERX a solid 'rebound' play over the short term, while also holding onto the long term potential of its pipeline.

A move back to the north side of three dollars was supported this week with announcement that a manuscript detailing some data from Perifisone's Phase II trial was selected for publication in the October 3, 2011 online edition of the Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO).

Perifisone, in-licensed from Aeterna Zentaris (AEZS) is a potential first-in-class, oral anti-cancer drug candidate that inhibits Akt activation in the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway and is currently being tested in Phase III trialsfor the treatment of colorectal cancer, and is also being investigated for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, with Orphan Drug Status and Fast Track Designation granted.

VFC's Take: Any KERX rebound is for real. While market forces might dictate some short term volatility, especially since it is well know that Keryx is looking for a buyout deal, the fact that both of this company's chief products are in the latter stages of Phase III make it a candidate to enjoy a 'results run'.

Shares are well off their 52-week highs, where they went after positive pipeline news was announced, and could rebound to close to that mark as we approach the expected dates for results release next year.

Still speculative, however, and will drop if the trials are not successful.

Buyout speculation is a wild card that could spark a short term rally, but it's more likely, in my opinion, that any buyout would occur on the other side of the Phase III results announcement.

BDSI: Shares of BioDelivery Sciences were hammered last week after the company announced that its Phase III trial for BEMA Buprenorphine missed the primary endpoint and that a new trial would be needed before filing for approval.

After dropping below a dollar earlier in the week, BDSI rebounded to close Wednesday at $1.07 while touching a high of $1.19 during intra day trading on high volume.

VFC's Take: While still holding significant long term potential, in my opinion and especially in light of the current prices, the short term outlook for BDSI looks to be in the hands of the volatile market. While Onsolis sales should start becoming a factor over the coming quarters, especially if a REMS outcome in the US is announced, any revenue will most likely not be enough to support a quick rebound in price to previously-traded levels.

This could be a quiet accumulation period for those with a long term outlook.

DNDN: Dendreon trading for below eight dollars again?

It happened.

It didn't happen for long, however, as DNDN rebounded on Wednesday and closed right at the nine dollar mark.

November 2nd has been identified as the earnings date for the third quarter, any many are looking for the company to announce Provenge sales numbers strong enough to boost some of the lost investor confidence resulting from the revised 2011 sales guidance and restructuring that took place shortly thereafter.

July Provenge numbers came in at $19 million, August saw an increase to $22 million, so assuming a similar trend for September, the total third quarter Provenge revenue might approach the $70 million mark.

Will that be enough to send DNDN shares higher again?

VFC's Take: Rebound is for real, barring short term short covering and volatility.

What killed Dendreon in the first place was lackluster sales, at least when compared to previous expectations. The lack of tremendous sales growth - according to the company - resulted from Doctors and medical professionals either not willing to front the expensive price for Provenge treatment while waiting for reimbursement, or not being familiar enough with the procedures for a quick reimbursement from the start.

Dendreon declared that it would attack that issue during the quarter and any evidence that Doctors are more willing to prescribe Provenge than before will be a huge selling point for a DNDN rebound.

If revenue for the quarter surprises, which would take a strong September of sales, then we could see a quick recovery by at least a few bucks.

As is always the case with this stock, however, Dendreon has quite a few haters out there that seem to be mad that Provenge was approved and always like pulling a few tricks out of their sleeves to push this one down.

AMRN: Amarin just filed with the FDA for the approval of AMR-101 in the treatment of high triglycerides. Two very encouraging Phase III trials have supported the filing, yet this company finds its shares trading for significantly lower than the 52-week high of near twenty dollars.

AMRN rebounded slightly from the lows of early in the week, but not as much - in terms of percentages - as other stocks in the sector.

Is a further rebound in store?

VFC's Take: Don't think this rebound is for real - at least not yet.

Given that AMR-101 is still about a year away from hitting market - even assuming a timely FDA approval - the shorts have some time to maybe push this one a little lower, especially if we haven't seen the end of the current downturn.

Some buyout or partnership news can change things, but we might still be waiting for the bottom with AMRN.

MNKD: Mannkind rebounded to the mid-threes after having recently traded below three dollars.

VFC's Take: I'm not buying this rebound just yet. MNKD is sitting on a half-billion dollar market cap on the prospects of a product that the FDA has denied a couple of times already. I believe that Afrezza, Mannkind's ihaled insulin that needs another trial before approval, will ultimately see approval, but any run in share price will come next year - in my opinion.

HGSI: Human Genome back in the mid twelves after some bad news from across the pond stalled a run on higher Benlysta sales.

VFC's Take: For real. Human Genome should continue inching higher to the twenty dollar mark again, but slowly.

The Mets Lower Ticket Prices Again: The New York Mets have announced that some tickets for the 2012 season, marking the third year in a row that the team has lowered tickets after stinking up Citi Field and sending more people to occupy the Disabled List than are occupying Wall Street right now.

VFC's Take: A joke. Baseball tickets will never be as cheap as they should be and if Jose Reyes doesn't come back the Wilpons should pay the fans to go to the ballpark.

On a final note, hats off to an American Icon and transformational figure in the world of technology and innovation - Steve Jobs.

Disclosure: Long KERX, BDSI, AMPE, DNDN, HGSI.

Until next time...

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